Changes at Met Office - Page 2

 


That's a little unfair :-)  More like buying the Oldest Inhabitant
a drink and listening to him rabbit on.  "Ah, I remember a spring
like this in 1897.  A right sodden summer there was that year,
too.  We used a rowboat to carry the taters back when we dug them."

But done scientifically, you know.  With lots of numbers, tables,
charts and graphs.

The point is that it isn't obviously invalid - i.e. it MIGHT work
better than pure guesswork.  But, equally well, it might not.  Now,
it the Met. Office had sponsored a quarterly television program
"Let's guess what the weather will do", explained the problem and
the various approaches, and (post hoc) compared their estimate with
the two most plausible crude ones ("the same as last year" and "the
average for the UK"), it would both have been interesting and not
attracted the condemnation.


Regards,
Nick Maclaren.

 



Not enough windows in the new offices?  Seaweed died off?  Joking
aside, theirs is a thankless task so I think this is a very sensible
move.  Does anyone truly believe they can predict 5 or 6 months ahead,
given what British weather is actually like?  Someone only has to
sneeze on Dartmoor for there to be a gale in Plymouth.  ;-)
--
Sacha
www.hillhousenursery.com
Shrubs & perennials. Tender & exotics.
South Devon

 


A forecast for all seasons,

Sunny intervals with scattered showers, prolonged in places.  Winds
variable, temperatures about average for the time of year.

Try it, its never far wrong.