Posted by Sacha on March 7, 2010, 10:52 am
Probably wisely, the Met. office has decided to scrap its seasonal
forecast. Following the wishes of people surveyed, they will now start
offering forecasts a month forward. So we'll put the barbecues away
for now....
--
Sacha
www.hillhousenursery.com
Shrubs & perennials. Tender & exotics.
South Devon
Posted by Bob Hobden on March 7, 2010, 12:13 pm
"Sacha" wrote
> Probably wisely, the Met. office has decided to scrap its seasonal
> forecast. Following the wishes of people surveyed, they will now start
> offering forecasts a month forward. So we'll put the barbecues away for
> now....
When one considers the cost of/and the computer power they have at their
disposal one wonders why they cannot be a bit more accurate now than they
used to be.
--
Regards
Bob Hobden
W.of London. UK
Posted by ®óñ© © ²°¹° on March 7, 2010, 12:18 pm
wrote:
>"Sacha" wrote
>> Probably wisely, the Met. office has decided to scrap its seasonal
>> forecast. Following the wishes of people surveyed, they will now start
>> offering forecasts a month forward. So we'll put the barbecues away for
>> now....
>When one considers the cost of/and the computer power they have at their
>disposal one wonders why they cannot be a bit more accurate now than they
>used to be.
An unexpected fluttering butterfly in the plains of Patagonia can
seriously disrupt a computed forecast. I thought this was
well-known.
--
(¯`·. ®óñ© © ²°¹° .·´¯)
Posted by nmm1 on March 7, 2010, 1:08 pm
>wrote:
>>"Sacha" wrote
>>> Probably wisely, the Met. office has decided to scrap its seasonal
>>> forecast. Following the wishes of people surveyed, they will now start
>>> offering forecasts a month forward. So we'll put the barbecues away for
>>> now....
>>
>>When one considers the cost of/and the computer power they have at their
>>disposal one wonders why they cannot be a bit more accurate now than they
>>used to be.
>An unexpected fluttering butterfly in the plains of Patagonia can
>seriously disrupt a computed forecast. I thought this was
>well-known.
That applies to the short-term forecasts. The problem is what used
to be called numerically unstable, and is now called chaotic, where
the error builds up exponentially. Unfortunately, the amount of
computing power increases the accuracy only linearly, so a very
large increase in computing power gives only a very small increase
in the period of reliable forecasts.
The long-term ones are based on pattern matching, and are merely
a more technological form of augury. A month ahead, there is some
chance of getting things right, but it's still a bit iffy.
Regards,
Nick Maclaren.
Posted by ®óñ© © ²°¹° on March 7, 2010, 1:34 pm
On Sun, 7 Mar 2010 18:08:47 +0000 (GMT), nmm1@cam.ac.uk wrote:
>>wrote:
>>>"Sacha" wrote
>>
>>>> Probably wisely, the Met. office has decided to scrap its seasonal
>>>> forecast. Following the wishes of people surveyed, they will now start
>>>> offering forecasts a month forward. So we'll put the barbecues away for
>>>> now....
>>>
>>>When one considers the cost of/and the computer power they have at their
>>>disposal one wonders why they cannot be a bit more accurate now than they
>>>used to be.
>>
>>An unexpected fluttering butterfly in the plains of Patagonia can
>>seriously disrupt a computed forecast. I thought this was
>>well-known.
>That applies to the short-term forecasts. The problem is what used
>to be called numerically unstable, and is now called chaotic, where
>the error builds up exponentially. Unfortunately, the amount of
>computing power increases the accuracy only linearly, so a very
>large increase in computing power gives only a very small increase
>in the period of reliable forecasts.
>The long-term ones are based on pattern matching, and are merely
>a more technological form of augury. A month ahead, there is some
>chance of getting things right, but it's still a bit iffy.
Like throwing a die or reading the chicken bones then?
--
(¯`·. ®óñ© © ²°¹° .·´¯)
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> forecast. Following the wishes of people surveyed, they will now start
> offering forecasts a month forward. So we'll put the barbecues away for
> now....