weather and bee behavior

 an extract from the ABC Website regarding
www.abc.net.au  From this page >
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/stories/s739932.htm


In the beginning of 1998 Katherine had the biggest flood in a century.
Six months later, half of NSW also saw massive floods. Peter Norville
says the wet season is definitely linked to rainfall down south.

BRIGID GLANVILLE: In Alice Springs an apiarist is well known for his
predictions of rainfall by watching the behaviour of his bees. On a
number of occasions when the bees start closing off the entrances to the
hives it's meant big rainfall is on the way. His following is also
legendary.

PETER NORVILLE: There's no question about it. When you've got a decent
wet season happening across the top of Australia, some of the cloud that
builds with that can't help but flow down through central Australia and
into NSW. It's got to give you a slightly better chance at the very
least of getting something happening in our own backyard.

BRIGID GLANVILLE: So what are we seeing at the moment in the Territory
and what's likely to come down south?

PETER NORVILLE: It tried to get underway with the wet season there a few
weeks back and then sort of fizzled out. And just in the last five or
six days it's happening again now. There's been some really good cloud
up there around about last weekend, and certainly some cloud drifting
down through our state at the moment. And all we need is a decent
pressure system to actually help to activate that. Hopefully that wet
season type cloud up there already has moisture with it.

BRIGID GLANVILLE: While Peter Norville admits the Bureau of Meteorology
is accurate for predicting temperatures, he says they don't have the
technology to predict rainfall, so he looks to south Asia for movement.

PETER NORVILLE: Well, the most important thing to me is what call "the
window". And with the technology that's available today on the Internet
with weather information satellites looking down on earth and satellite
photos, it's wonderful. It opened a window to us. It's a bit like the
person who lives and works in the city, in an office, can't see outside.
We have this massive window to the globe. We can see what's going on.

And when I suddenly started to see this some years back, I said, look,
the Bay of Bengal. Look at those cloud bands that are forming around
there. And over a few days you would watch them drift down towards
Western Australia. And then I'd notice that pattern would stop. It
happens at different times. At the moment the Bay of Bengal is hardly
doing a thing, I would suggest for us.



The Bureau admits there may be a coincidence with a good wet season and
above average rainfall down south. But they don't rely on it for forecasts.

BLAIR TREWIN: It happens sometimes and there've certainly been quite a
few instances in the past when very good wet seasons in the north have
been followed by wet years in the south. 1974 was a very good example of
that, also 2000 in a lot of places.

 
?????  How is this relevant?  The article is from 2002!!!!!!! and the
so called "prediction" for a decent rainfall in southern Australia the
following year was way off the mark!  We're into our SIXTH year of
drought now with rainfalls consistently at least a third lower than
they should be.



century.

Norville

Territory

drifting

Meteorology

movement.

"the

Internet

satellite

outside.

forecasts.

example of

 

I have a question.  What *is* the rainfall that you should have?  At what
point do we call it drought?  Isn't drought just the rough end of the
pineapple of variance, and something we should expect and allow for?  I am
just wondering about our averages, and whether in fact there are many years
where rainfall is near-average (either in your area or mine).  Could it be
that in some places we get either wet or drought years, without too many in
the middle?

Sydney is having another dry summer but it is not as dry as last year IMO.  
The BOM don't have the Dec rainfall figures out yet, but I am guessing they
are only a bit below average.  Temps seem lower too, and it is more humid
(though not actually *high* humidity; it's been about 50% this week).  Wonder
how many scorchers we'll get this February?

--
Chookie -- Sydney, Australia
(Replace "foulspambegone" with "optushome" to reply)

"Parenthood is like the modern stone washing process for denim jeans. You may
start out crisp, neat and tough, but you end up pale, limp and wrinkled."
Kerry Cue